Objective: To evaluate whether a six-minute walk distance (6MWD) of < 80% of the predicted value can predict the occurrence of acute exacerbations of COPD in patients in Brazil over a 2-year period. Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study involving 50 COPD patients in Brazil. At enrollment, anthropometric data were collected and patients were assessed for pulmonary function (by spirometry) and functional exercise capacity (by the 6MWD). The patients were subsequently divided into two groups: 6MWD ≤ 80% of predicted and 6MWD > 80% of predicted. The occurrence of acute exacerbations of COPD over 2 years was identified by analyzing medical records and contacting patients by telephone. Results: In the sample as a whole, there was moderate-to-severe airflow obstruction (mean FEV1 = 41 ± 12% of predicted) and the mean 6MWD was 469 ± 60 m (86 ± 10% of predicted). Over the 2-year follow-up period, 25 patients (50%) experienced acute exacerbations of COPD. The Kaplan-Meier method showed that the patients in whom the 6MWD was ≤ 80% of predicted were more likely to have exacerbations than were those in whom the 6MWD was > 80% of predicted (p = 0.01), whereas the Cox regression model showed that the former were 2.6 times as likely to have an exacerbation over a 2-year period as were the latter (p = 0.02). Conclusions: In Brazil, the 6MWD can predict acute exacerbations of COPD over a 2-year period. The risk of experiencing an acute exacerbation of COPD within 2 years is more than twice as high in patients in whom the 6MWD is ≤ 80% of predicted.

Keywords: Pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive; Risk groups; Exercise.